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Everything You Know is Wrong - Part 2
by Irv Goldfarb
Now that we have established the fact that what we think we know in advance of a game is probably inaccurate, we take that idea to a brand new level—a “double your pleasure” approach cleverly called a switch ’em! What we will deal with is this: if it’s hard for us to get just one game right on any given night, how impossible must it be to hit two? And this time, we will not only find out how much we really don’t know, we’ll also get the opportunity to play (and hopefully win) twice as many contests!
Let’s go back to our original assumption: more often than not, our instinct on a single game will probably be wrong. Hence, when we try to pick the winners of two games in one night, our chances of winning both of them have to be twice as bad, no?
Now let’s add a new element, based purely on the betting line: if there are two games on the board with the exact same point spread, we’ll assume, for the purpose of this theory, that one of the games will go to the favorite and the other to the underdog. Yeah, I know, we’re not supposed to use that word assume but I have found that this particular phenomenon does indeed hold true much of the time: when lines match up, they usually do split—one game to the fave, one to the dog. So, for this particular approach, we will only play contests where the lines match up.
As I first came up with this theory while dribbling through the NBA, let’s begin there, going back to a Monday evening, a couple of seasons ago. On that night, two hot teams were facing each other, the Atlanta Hawks, winners of nine games in a row, were visiting Indiana, with the Pacers giving up six points. On the same night, the Dallas Mavericks were hosting the LA Clippers and were also giving away six.
In the case of any two games, we have four choices: (1) Both favorites cover; (2) Both dogs cover; (3) One favorite and one dog are winners; (4) The opposite combination of underdog-favorite pays off. So, following our original postulation, we’ll ignore the first two choices (both faves, both dogs, covering). Right off this makes our lives half as difficult—it cuts our choices down from four possibilities to two, with the only thing to avoid being a double loss. Our objective is to stay away from the one pair that will be the double loser. Our choice now is fifty-fifty. But how do we know which pair is correct?
Well, simply remember that “Everything We Know Is Wrong,” and that we are definitely not smart enough to pick one game correctly on a regular basis, so how could we possibly be successful picking two? We can’t! So, we will take the pair that seems to make the most sense and we will simply switch ’em!
First, we must begin each and every switch ’em by making the following statement: “Any Idiot in Their Right Mind Would Say What?” (If we do not begin every single switch ’em with this exact question, it will not work). Well, as far as this particular idiot is concerned, I would say that the Hawks, having won nine straight, seem a pretty safe bet getting half a dozen points from Indiana. The Paper Clips, meanwhile, have never been a good bet and should never be considered a serious investment. So, in my opinion, “Any Idiot in Their Right Mind” would quickly grab the Hawks and the Mavs, and park himself in front of the TV for the evening.
Instead, we take a deep breath, throw those instincts of ours out the proverbial window again and switch ’em. That’s right! We’ll take the Pacers giving the red-hot Hawks six points and (gulp) the LA Clippers getting the half dozen at Dallas!
So what did happen on that night in the NBA? Well, Atlanta kept it close for about a quarter, but the Pacers finally snapped the Hawks’ winning skein, 107-90, and those huggable Clippers? Believe it or not, they came from way behind and hit a huge trey at the buzzer, losing 105-101. A miracle to be sure, but more importantly, a double victory for that theory of the Bizzaro world: the switch ’em!
Okay, now it’s time for you to play along, so grab a pencil: the following evening, the only games with matching lines, show Indiana at home once again, this time giving the Celtics 11 points. Meanwhile the Spurs are laying the same 11 big ones to the Golden State Warriors. Ready? “AIITRMWSW?” (“Any Idiot in Their Right...”) Good, you got it! What would you say would be the obvious pairing in this situation? Take your time… your final answer? Well, if you think like I do, you know (there’s that word again) that betting the Warriors on a regular basis is a sure way to clean out your bank account. The Celtics, meanwhile, though hurting recently, are still the Celtics, and 11 points just seems like a lot to be giving the Green and White. So, this idiot would say that the instinctive play would be Boston getting, and the Spurs giving, the double digits, therefore, we’ll switch ’em again, and go with the Pacers laying the chalk and (gasp) the Warriors getting the points! Now let’s all cover our eyes, and pray.
The Pacers? No problemo! They beat Boston on that night, 116-98. And Golden State made things particularly satisfying, as they covered by one slim point, losing to San Antonio, 101-91! Now the important question is, did your instincts agree with mine? Yes, a valid question does crop up here: what if your gut feeling in this last example told you that the Pacers would hammer the Celtics at home; and that the lowly Warriors would hang tough against the mighty Spurs? Then, had you switched ’em, you would indeed have lost them both!
The answer, as always, lies in the long-term. The beauty of a switch ’em is, that if you continue to utilize it, things always tend to work themselves out in the end. Your original guess may have been correct tonight, but tomorrow, your internal gyroscope might be totally out of whack, and by switching that night’s pairings, you’ll hit both games that you would have lost! In any case, I will stand by my original axiom: Your opinion, my opinion, the guy next door’s opinion, on any two given games, will both be wrong more often than they will both be right!
Now, can we switch ’em in the National Football League, too? Well, yes actually, our only warning flag being that we’ll obviously find many more lines landing between three and seven points, giving us multiple pairings on any given Sunday. What do we do when we find more than two games with the same line? What happens when three or four games go off at, say, 3 or 6½ points? I asked myself this question when the situation first arose, and I found that the answer is to look closely at the games in question, to see if any two of them even look alike. I mean really look alike! Are two of them road favorites? Pair them up and throw the other games out. Are two of them literally listed next to each other in the newspaper? Good enough! Use these two and discard the rest. The secret to a switch ’em is pairs, pairs, pairs; as long as any two games look, feel, or smell the same, or have lines moving in the same direction, pair ’em up and attack!
When I first introduced the switch ’em to my skeptical brother, he reluctantly agreed to try it out. The next time we met, he prostrated himself before me. “That switch ’em thing? Smartest idea you ever came up with,” he said, “it’s pure genius!”
My brother obviously never realized how much he didn’t know!
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